Western sanctions and the difficulties of Russian forces in Ukraine weaken the commercial position of Moscow in the region.
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Russia, the second country exporting weapons in the world after the United States, has long been the leading supplier of Southeast Asia. Since 2000, it has sold for $ 10.7 billion (10.1 billion euros) in the region, more than the United States, the European Union and China. However, this relationship began to run out of steam in 2014, after the annexation of Crimea by Moscow, and the war in Ukraine risks questioning it widely.
In addition to economic sanctions and the control of exports imposed on Russia since the start of the conflict, on February 24, the difficulties of the Russian army on the Ukrainian theater tarnished the reputation of the country’s military industry, advances Ian Storey, researcher at the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute, in Singapore. “Before the war, Russian weapons were considered robust, solid and adequate for the countries of Southeast Asia, but the images of Russian military equipment destroyed in Ukraine will encourage these countries to reconsider their purchases,” notes the specialist Safety issues in Southeast Asia.
Russia was until then the privileged supplier of the region thanks to the price of its military equipment, more affordable than those of its Western competitors, its flexibility in terms of payment and the fact that it did not take into account The question of human rights in contracts. But, now, “buying Russian weapons has become a risky bet”, maintains Mr. Storey.
Exports from the Russian defense industry to Southeast Asia began to decrease in 2014, with the annexation of Crimea and the implementation of Western sanctions. Vietnam, the main importer of the region, also paused its military modernization program at that time. And, in 2017, the US Congress voted for a law allowing the government to impose sanctions on countries buying weapons in Moscow, the Countering America’s adversaries Through Sanctions Act (“Act to counter the enemies of America by sanctions “). “It is a constraint for the countries of the Southeast Asian. They must now calculate this risk if they want to buy weapons in Russia,” said Carlyle Thayer, professor emeritus at the University of New South Wales, in Australia.
to more “reliable” sources
Result, Russian weapons sales in Southeast Asia plummeted $ 1.2 billion in 2014 to only $ 109 million in 2021, according to the International Research Institute Stockholm peace. This fall should continue due to the sanctions imposed on Russia since the invasion in Ukraine, according to Mr. Thayer: “doing business with Russia has become difficult, the country is now ostracized, even toxic.”
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