While the unemployment rate approaches the 7%, the Executive is possible for greater decline.
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In one sentence, Emmanuel Macron has transported his audience to a golden age that France has left for decades: it must “aim (…) the full employment,” said the President of the Republic during his Speech of 9 November. The formula can only hit the spirits in a country where mass unemployment is deeply enkyty. She also suggests that new ambitions are emerging at the highest peak of the state.
During the Supreme Judiciary race in 2017, Mr. Macron had traced a CAP: bring back from 9.5% to 7% the share of the unemployed in the labor force, by the end of the mandat. This commitment, which seemed to hold the guaggle with the recession triggered by the CIVID-19 epidemic, is credible again, thanks to the strength of the recovery. “The program provided for 1.3 million additional jobs in five years”, recalls the economist Jean Pisani-Ferry, who played a key role in the campaign team of the candidate! However, “in the summer of 2021, we are not far from 1 million jobs [more] since the beginning of the five-year,” he adds, by adding the progressions recorded for salaried workers and not Employees: “It would give up on arrival a result enough in line with the initial encryption,” says Pisani-Ferry, while stating that “hazards” remain.
As for the unemployment rate, it is now 8.1% for the entire territory (overseas included, except Mayotte) and could reflect up to 7.6% over the last three months of the year, according to INSEE’s forecasts. A ratio that is close to the goal of Mr. Macron. But the tenant of the Elysée intends to do better: “We must not target only 7% of unemployment,” he said, on November 9th. His horizon is therefore full employment, now.
“Incompressual unemployment”
Until what percentage should we go down to end up in such a configuration? The answer, that the head of state refrained from delivering, is all but obvious. “It is very difficult to identify the level where the full-employment is located,” says Jean-Luc Tavernier, the Director General of INSEE. Although this notion has idyllic connotations, it does not mean that all assets have work “, chained Yannick Horty, Professor at Gustave-Eiffel University (Paris-Est). “In fact, there is a” frictional “unemployment attributable to the fact that a minimum of time is needed to be hired after leaving a job or when starting a professional career,” he says.
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