Imports of fertilizers, whose prices continue to climb, could still weigh on agricultural production of the continent.
MO12345lemonde with AFP
The African continent continues to undergo persistent difficulties, especially food, against the backdrop of war in Ukraine, estimated, Thursday, January 12, the French Development Agency (AFD), although it has “absorbed” the shock economics linked to the pandemic of COVID-19.
“The Covid shock has now been absorbed,” said Thomas Mélonio, director of research at AFD, as a preamble to the presentation of a work presenting the prospects of the French institution on the continent this year. GDP per capita will thus exceed its 2019 level this year, allowing Africa to join the geographic areas in the world having seen their national wealth regain preparation levels.
This good news hides a difficult economic situation and subject to the vagaries of the international conjuncture, a few weeks before the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine. This war was marked by an outbreak of cereal prices just after the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which represented before the conflict 30 % of the supply of the planet in wheat.
After reaching historical levels in March, the world prices for food products have appeased at the end of the year, especially after the resumption of Ukrainian wheat exports in the Black Sea.
conflicts and serious Drought
Africa has in this context “escaped” with mass famines feared in 2022 by the United Nations, said Bio Goura Soulé, an expert within the Economic Community of African States of the West (CEDEAO), during the AFD conference. The persistent increase in fertilizer prices could however weigh on agricultural production this year, alerted Thomas Mélonio.
More broadly, the situation is far from stabilized with regard to food security, said Benoit Faivre-DuPaire, AFD research manager, recalling that most states requiring food assistance in the world were in Africa.
“We must not put this only on the account of food prices but on the overall situation of conflicts and crises in different areas of Africa”, especially in the Sahel and the east of the continent, which undergoes a serious drought, he said.
During its last economic forecasts concerning sub -Saharan Africa in October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said to expect growth of 3.7 % in 2023 after 3.6 % in 2022.