Such an episode has a chance to perform every 20 years in the current climate. Without warming, it would only have occurred once every 400 years in the northern hemisphere, and every 60 to 80 years in Europe.
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The dry rhine, municipalities without drinking water in France, hunger stones that resurface in the Czech Republic, aridity and exceptional heat by China triggering a national alert, half of the American territory affected … this summer , a large part of the northern hemisphere was struck by a historic drought. According to a Study published Wednesday October 5 , climate change of human origin has made these episodes at least 20 times more likely, reducing crops and aggravating tensions on the agricultural markets , energy production and water supply.
These works come from a network of international scientists, the World Weather attribution, which specializes in allocation studies, in order to determine how the occurrence and intensity of extreme events – waves heat, floods or storms – were influenced by the climate crisis.
This time, the study focused on the drought of the soil, also known as agricultural drought, of this summer. The 21 researchers analyzed the surface soil humidity levels and up to a deep meter recorded in June, July and August throughout the northern hemisphere with the exception of the tropics. They also focused on central and western Europe – two thirds of the continent were affected on August 10 . Using models associated with field observations, climatologists have compared this situation, in a heated climate of 1.2 ° C, with the climate of the past.
“Sols drying up”
The team concludes that climate change, in the northern hemisphere, has made agricultural drought at least 20 times more likely for the area one meter deep – particularly important for cultures since this is where the Plants pump water – and at least 5 times more likely for surface floors. The effects are also important in central and western Europe: warming has multiplied the probability of drought from 3 to 4 for the one meter -deep area, and between 5 and 6 times for the surface.
Such drought now has a chance to perform every twenty years in the northern hemisphere and in Europe in the current climate. Conversely, without global warming, it would only have taken place once every four hundred years in the northern hemisphere, and every sixty to eighty years in Europe.
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