The candidates of La République En Marche, “in the fog”, exploit the fear of a possible arrival of Mélenchon in Matignon and count on a voting mode to their advantage.
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like the shadow of a doubt. The day after Emmanuel Macron’s re -election, at the end of April, his lieutenants imagined the legislative elections as a formality. The strategists of La République en Marche (LRM) then tapped on only two scenarios: a “dreamed”, in which LRM alone would have the absolute majority (fixed at 289 deputies), which would allow the executive to have the assurance that his texts would be voted with their eyes closed; And a “catastrophic”, where it would only have a relative majority, and would therefore be forced to count on the reinforcement of its allies of the modem and horizons. At the risk of having to make concessions to elected officials from the parties of François Bayrou and Edouard Philippe.
A month and a half later, as June 12 and 19 approached, the landscape darkened. Five days before the first round, Emmanuel Macron’s troops remain confident but without being, however, to win the absolute majority. With the progressive decline recorded by the presidential camp in the polls, the lieutenants of the Head of State have seriously revised their ambitions, now fearing a narrow majority … even a defeat, unthinkable several weeks ago, but now judged “not impossible” at the Elysée.
If the Minister of Relations with Parliament, Olivier Véran, spoke of the possibility that the future assembly is “not in accordance with the program for which the President of the Republic was elected”, the boss of MoDem deputies , Patrick Mignola, himself admitted “to fear an electoral accident”, as the party looks more complicated than in 2017. At the time, when he came to power, the President of the Republic had a majority overwhelming, with 313 LRM deputies and 47 modem. Today, the offensive led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon at the head of the new popular, ecological and social union (Nuts), with the objective of imposing a cohabitation on Mr. Macron, changed the situation.
“them or us”
This new training, associating France Insoumise, Europe Ecologie-les Verts, the Communist Party and the Socialist Party, has established itself as the main opponent of the presidential camp. The results of the first round of the legislative elections, among the French from abroad, made public on Sunday June 6, illustrate this face-to-face. If the macronist candidates came mainly in mind – with the exception of Manuel Valls – the left alliance made a breakthrough, by qualifying for the second round in ten constituencies on eleven. Or the double compared to 2017 … Enough to arouse a wind of mistrust, even concern, in the macronist ranks.
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