Turning Covid-19 into a regular cold

Over the next ten years, Coronavirus SARS-COV-2 may begin to strike small children, reminding these other coronaviruses, causing an ordinary cold. This time is called University of Pennsylvania, who published their conclusions in the Science Advances magazine. Experts believe that the overall burden of the disease will decrease, since most adult people will have immunity to COVID-19.

Researchers conducted mathematical modeling of the age structure of the pandemic to study possible future scenarios of age-related changes, morbidity and burden of mortality from COVID-19. The burden of illness was studied in the short-term medium and long term – 1, 10 and 20 years, respectively. In addition, this figure was reviewed for 11 different countries, including China, Japan, South Korea, Europe, Spain, Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, USA, Brazil and South Africa, which are greatly different in demographic characteristics.

Results indicated the risk of infection from an adult population to children. Such shifts were observed with respect to other coronaviruses and influenza viruses that began to cause endemic diseases. For example, a pandemic of 1889-1890, known as “Asian influenza” or “Russian influenza”, claimed the lives of a million people, mostly adults over 70 years old. It was probably caused by the HCOV-OC43 influenza virus, which then turned into a cold virus, striking main children aged from 7-12 months.

However, if immunity to the re-infection of SARS-COV-2 among adults will decrease, the burden of illness can remain high in this group, although the disease itself becomes easier. The initial impact of the virus can provide short-term immunity to re-infection, allowing repeated outbreaks, and the immune system will provide some protection against severe disease. Vaccine gives more reliable protection than contamination with coronavirus.

/Media reports.