The International Monetary Fund now provides that the GDP of the planet will increase by 2.9 % in 2023. This would mark a slowdown compared to 2022, but an increase in relation to the estimates delivered in October.
by Julien Bouissou
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees the light at the end of the tunnel. In its forecasts published Tuesday, January 31, the Washington institution certainly anticipates a slowdown in global growth at 2.9 % in 2023, after 3.4 % in 2022, but its estimates are much more optimistic in October 2022 ( Coming from 0.2 percentage points), which testifies, according to the fund, “unexpected positive results and stronger resilience than expected in many countries”.
“This year [2023] could mark a turning point, with growth that reaches its lowest point and inflation that slows down,” says Pierre-Olivier Gourchas, the chief economist of the IMF. Growth should then accelerate, 3.1 % in 2024. Projections that cut with much more pessimistic those of the World Bank, which provides for an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of only 1.7 % In 2023, the lowest rate recorded in three decades, excluding recession.
IMF optimism is due to several reasons. The global economy first demonstrated much greater resistance than expected in the third quarter of 2022. This was the case in Europe, thanks to significant budgetary support (equivalent to 1.2 % of the GDP of the old Continent), which made it possible to amortize the shock of the increase in energy prices on purchasing power and investments. 2> “Budget support in purchasing power”
Finally, the euro zone should experience growth of 0.7 % in 2023 (+ 0.2 percentage point compared to the forecasts of October 2022). An embellishment allocated, among other things, by the IMF to “lower energy prices of energy” and to “additional announcements of budgetary support for purchasing power”. On the contrary, the situation should deteriorate in the United Kingdom, with a GDP contraction of 0.6 % expected in 2023, due to the hardening of budgetary and monetary policies.
The issue of prices – especially those of energy – has been particularly studied by the IMF. “Those of the gas have recorded a larger drop than expected, underlines the fund, due to the increase in flows (…) coming from non -Russian suppliers, the drying up of the demand for gas and a milder winter than Usually. “Then inflation began to slow down after the strong push in recent months.
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