Since the early 2000s and the “Orange Revolution”, in 2004, Russia has delighted a battle, which has remained deaf, and for eight years, openly military, for the maintenance of this country in its sphere. Acmé of this long force test: the diplomatic ultimatum launched by Putin, in mid-December 2021, aimed to obtain the explicit guarantee of Ukraine’s non-adhesion at NATO, and therefore of a status of neutrality in Form of “Finlandization” for this country. This objective being accompanied by another requirement: the withdrawal of a certain number of NATO armaments systems deployed at the borders of Russia. Faced with the rejection of the ultimatum by Washington, the invasion of Ukraine began on February 24.
After four months of war, what is the situation? A western observer, an inveterate optimistic, as there is a lot these days in Washington, London but also in Paris, would conclude that Putin has already failed all over the line. The Putinian invasion first consolidated a true Ukrainian nation, definitively cut off from its roots and its long Russian history.
m. Putin, who wanted at all costs to avoid a rapprochement of Ukraine with NATO, has itself built a real land bridge of Western arms deliveries to Ukraine, at unprecedented levels: American leaks is already around $ 20 billion in armaments (19 billion euros), not to mention 20 other billion economic and civil aid.
American reinforcements at NATO, forgotten since the end of the Cold War, are again back, visible everywhere in central and eastern Europe, accompanied by the strengthening of the military presence of other allies, such as France . Sweden and Finland are joining NATO, breaking with a very long history of neutrality. In short, an alliance, which was in a state of “brain death” two years ago, was resourced with Mr. Putin, to whom the Americans also have to see their political and military leadership on Europe miraculously resurrected.
To make a good measure, the same Mr. Putin, who had vigorously opposed the merger of Ukraine with the European Union (EU) in 2014 – which led to the Maidan revolution and all the events that followed, including the annexation of Crimea -, must today observe, helpless, the admission of Ukraine to the status of candidate for the EU. In addition, Russia now faces an almost total economic boycott on the part of the Western world, which, ultimately, will pose considerable problems of maintenance and modernization of its industry.
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