The economy grew by 4.9% compared to 2020. This settlement was expected but it testifies to the difficulties related to the merchandise transport crisis and the slowdown in the real estate market, among others.
Repeat current cuts forcing businesses all over the country to interrupt their activity, almost bankruptcy of one of the main real estate developers whose debt represents 260 billion euros … Chinese growth in the third quarter. ‘Not announced under the best auspices. In fact, the figure published on Monday, October 18, 4.9% of growth between July and September compared to the third quarter of 2020, is not a good number, even though it corresponds to the anticipations of analysts.
In the first quarter, Chinese growth had reached the extravagant level of 18.3%, compared in the first quarter 2020 marked by the CVIV-19 crisis. With 7.9% year-on-year, growth in the second quarter had made very good figure: the Chinese export machine turned back to full speed. In the third, she stopped.
The current slowdown was expected. A few days ago, the International Monetary Fund has revised slightly downward (8% instead of 8.1% earlier), its growth forecast for China for the year 2021. The Chinese government, has always is cautious, with a growth forecast of “more than 6%” this year. Visiting the Great Trade Fair of Canton on October 15, Prime Minister Li Keqiang wanted reassuring. “China has adequate tools to deal with the economic challenges facing (…) and should be able to reach a growth rate of more than 6%,” he said, recognizing, however, that The economy was facing “numerous factors of instability and uncertainty”.
Tubsauts
The difficulties of the Evergrand’s real estate developer are one, although the Central Bank of China wanted reassuring: “Any contagion to the financial sector is controllable,” she said on October 15. Evergrande will not be in the Chinese economy what the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers has been to US finance in 2008. Nevertheless, the Chinese likely to acquire housing is suspicious. In September, housing sales fell by 30% in thirty cities.
Chinese port congestion – due to strong activity but also a “zero covid” policy that slows most of the operations – considerably increases the cost of logistics. On the other hand, China, which has closed many coal plants that are too polluting and Boycot Australian coal, suffers from a fuel shortage despite rising imports, mainly from Indonesia and Russia.
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