The global problem of failures in supply chains and price pressure hit in the global economy, restraining the recovery from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, reports Reuters with reference to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
IMF reduced world GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.9 percent from the July forecast of six percent. During a small change in the forecast of economic growth, a significant decrease in the GDP of some countries is hidden. “Prospects for developing low-income countries were overwhelmed due to the deterioration in the dynamics of the coronavirus pandemic. The lowering of the forecast also reflects more complex short-term prospects for countries with a developed economy, partly due to supply failures,” the IMF report says.
GDP growth forecast in 2021 decreased by only 0.2 percent to 6.8 percent – such a tempo became the fastest among the G7 economies. For the US, growth forecast for 2021 decreased by one percent to six percent compared with July. The growth rates in Germany decreased by half a check-in compared with the July forecast to 3.1 percent, and in Japan, 0.4 percent to 2.4 percent.
China’s growth forecast for 2021 was reduced by 0.1 percent to eight percent, and for India remained unchanged at the level of 9.5 percent. But the prospects in other countries of Asia worsened due to the growth of cases of coronavirus – the IMF reduced the forecast for 1.4 percent for a group of five ASEAN countries, consisting of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.
Global production activities slowed down due to failures in supply chains. The problem aggravated the lack of freight containers for the transportation of goods, clogged ports and a shortage of logistics workers. Because of the supply failures, the factories have faced a shortage of key components, in particular, semiconductors, which caused the reducing production.
The IMF also warned that the slow rate of vaccination in low-income countries will lead to even greater economic inequality compared with rich countries. It is estimated that in 2021, the poverty line will be from 65 to 75 million people. The IMF predicts that the cumulative production volume in poor countries in 2022 will be 6.7 percent lower than the daemonium level. In countries with a developed economy by 2022, the volume of production will be almost one percent above the level up to the pandemic.
Since most residents in developed countries are vaccinated, by 2022, 90 percent of them will be returned to the additional imaging level of per capita, and only one third of countries with low and middle-income will be able to do this. There, the growth of the economy will become the slowest – 2.9 percent – over the past 20 years. Developing countries and the Secretary General of the United Nations (UN) Anthony Guterrish demanded a more equitable distribution of vaccine against coronavirus.