Google recently published findings detailing the forecasted capabilities of quantum computers needed to successfully factorize 2048-bit RSA encryption keys. According to research, it was determined that hacking an RSA-2024 key could potentially be achieved in a week of calculations on a quantum computer with a million noisy qubits. Currently, quantum computers can utilize between 100 to 1000 qubits with a 0.1% error rate for such an attack.
Interestingly, Google’s estimated number of qubits required is significantly lower than previous predictions made in 2019. This reduction was achieved through algorithm optimization for factoring to the modular exponentiation level, as well as implementing layered error correction techniques. The National Institute of Standards and Technologies (NIST) in the U.S. plans to phase out the use of insecure algorithms for key selection by 2030 and completely ban their use after 2035.
RSA encryption relies on the mathematical operation of constructing a large modular number. This module consists of two randomly selected prime numbers, known only to the owner of the private key. Quantum computers have the potential to efficiently solve the factorization problem, allowing for the derivation of a private key from a public key in RSA encryption.