The outbreak of oil prices, gas and food should first affect the poor of urban areas, according to the institution.
Le Monde and AFP.
The World Bank foresees a slowdown in growth for 2022 in sub-Saharan Africa, where many countries, barely delivered from the economic shock of COVID-19, face the consequences of the war in Ukraine. In a semi-annual report on the continent’s macroeconomic perspectives published Wednesday, April 13, the institution provides for “growth of 3.6% for 2022, down compared to the 4% recorded in 2021”.
“This slowdown is part of a regional context marked by the persistence of new variants of CVIV-19, overall inflation, disruption of supply chains and climate shocks. The rise of world prices of raw materials , which has accelerated since the beginning of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, is in addition to the other economic challenges in the region, “says the text.
“Main global food exporters, Russia – which is also the largest exporter of fertilizer in the world – and Ukraine, represent an important part of imports of wheat, corn and seed oil, And these could stop in case of continuation of the conflict, “says the World Bank.
” higher probability of civil disorders “
The outbreak of the price of oil, gas and basic foods can mainly affect the poorest populations in urban areas, “she warns. According to the institution, the most important impact of the conflict “could be a higher probability of civilian disorders that would result from inflation of food and energy prices in the context of increased political instability.”
While confronted with “limited budget margins, decision-makers should turn to innovative options such as the decline or temporary removal of import duties on basic foodstuffs, to help Their fellow citizens “advocates Albert Zeufack, Chief Economist of the BM for Africa.
The study also points out that post-pandemic economic recovery is uneven in the region. It will remain “slow” in the three largest economies of the continent, Angola, Nigeria and South Africa. If the first two cities should still benefit from rising oil prices, South Africa is still facing structural problems, including electricity shortages.
“Resource-rich countries, particularly in the extractive sector, will record better economic performance because of the war in Ukraine, while countries that do not have abundant natural resources will have a slowdown,” concludes the institution .