The outgoing president collects 25% voting intentions in the first round of the presidential election, according to the new wave of the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for “Le Monde”. None of its competitors are perceived at this stage as able to do better than him at the Elysée.
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less than eighty days of the first round of the presidential election, nothing is fixed, especially since voting certainties remain weak and that the estimate of participation, even if it progresses, remains Below the one measured at the same date in 2017, introducing an additional factor of uncertainty. However, what strikes, it is the good performance of the voting intentions in favor of Emmanuel Macron (25%) and stagnation, or even erosion, those in favor of Valérie Pécresse (15.5%). How to explain it?
In the history of the V e Republic, we only have two possible comparison bases of an outgoing president who represents himself to examine his score of January: one, Valery Giscard d’Estaing in 1981, too distant to be useful, and the other, that of Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012. The other cases, François Mitterrand in 1988 or Jacques Chirac in 2002, are inoperative because of the periods of cohabitation. Suffice to say that it is not the past that can inform us. It can be noted that the 2012 surveys, which gave François Hollande winner and in front of Nicolas Sarkozy in the first round, were confirmed. It is therefore only on the basis of the current indicators that must be reasoned. Five factors make it possible to understand why Emmanuel Macron continues to dominate the first round.
There are first of all exogenous factors, some of which can naturally evolve. The COVID-19 makes oppositions difficult to audible so much the epidemic structure the daily life of the French, makes the eyes turn to the executive – the only one, by definition, in a situation of acting – and allows the government to obtain, Even if it has fallen, a relative satisfaction on the management of the health crisis (42%, down 7 points) or a strong agreement of opinion on emblematic measures such as the vaccinal pass: 62% of the French are favorable … and 74% of Valerie Pécresse voters. Not easy in this context to differentiate, any candidate being perceived as capable of doing better than Mr. Macron.
Converts resist
In the same way, current concerns play rather in favor of the outgoing President: some had predicted a presidential dominated by the regal issues. However, the first four concerns are purchasing power, COVID-19, the health system and the environment. Immigration and delinquency, where right and extreme right are more credible, come only afternoon.
But there is also, and it is the most interesting, strictly political factors. For a long time, the potential fragility of Emmanuel Macron was considered at the forefront of the supposed heterogeneous alloy of its supports: it is at the two ends of the Macronian omelette that it would lose, or at least the one of the two ends. However, what the Panel Ipsos shows, by allowing to go back to 2015 and the reconstructions of the vote of 2012, it is that 36% of those who voted Holland in 2012 and 35% of those who voted Sarkozy say they wish Voting Macron in 2022. They had already done so much in 2017, especially on the left, but even if there is online loss, these segments resist. The offer on the left and right does not convince these converts, which could partly remain so until 10 April. It’s a key element of the final result.
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