The strong European dependence on liquefied natural gas will raise prices and greenhouse gas emissions, in a context of exacerbated competition with China, underlines a study of the think tank the shift project.
by Nabil Wakim and Marjorie Cessac
Winter 2022-2023 foreshadows other difficult winters on the gas front. Since the attack of Ukraine by Russia, on February 24, Europe has massively reoriented its supplies: Russian natural gas has increased from 40 % to 9 % of imports from the European Union (EU). To replace this gas, Europeans rushed to sign long -term contracts with exporting countries of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Germany has just concluded a contract over fifteen years with Qatar, announced on November 29.
This gas is first cooled to – 161 ° C to be able to be transported by LNIR, before being transformed into gas in European ports. The sudden race which it is the subject explains the spectacular increase in gas prices on the world market, which have been multiplied by five in a few months, reaching levels never observed. This supply difficulty raises fears of electricity cuts in several European countries based strongly on gas power plants, and undermines industry, in particular in Germany, which had used the costs of Production indexed to Russian gas, relatively inexpensive.
According to a study carried out by the think tank the shift project, this situation could last at least for the next five years. In a report intended for the Ministry of Defense and made public Tuesday, December 6, the reflection center chaired by engineer Jean-Marc Jancovici explains that 40 % of EU gas needs in 2025 may not be filled or Rest on “unidentified sources of supply” to date.
structural dynamics
For 2030, “the global deficit to be feared in the absence of a return to normal for gas exchanges between the EU and Russia is around 100 cubic gigameters, the equivalent From a withdrawal from Qatar from the LNG market, “reads the study. Based on the data from the Rystad Energy expertise firm, it emphasizes that the current gas crisis is nothing cyclical, but that it is rather a structural dynamic.
“In reality, this crisis began in September [2021], at the time of post-Cavid takeover, and it was aggravated by the war in Ukraine”, underlines Matthieu Auzanneau, director of the Shift Project. Sanctions against Russia and attacks on Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines have pushed Europe to seek other sources of gas. But the EU is not the only one on this field: China has already managed to secure its supplies for 2025, unlike Europeans.
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