The question of the future of Jair Bolsonaro, who will remain in office in Brazil until the end of 2022, has been posed since the election of Lula, on October 30, at the head of the country. Three scenarios are possible. First, the putsch. The timid signs of conciliation issued after the ballot should not hide that the loser has not recognized his defeat, and that when he affirms that he will always respect “the narrow limits of the Constitution”, this can also, for him , include the intervention of the armed forces.
After all, the state of siege is in the constitution and, for Bolsonaro and its clan, there was no military dictatorship in Brazil, but a legal intervention to save the country. Admittedly, the Brazilian electoral system has shown its great superiority over that of the United States thanks to its simplicity and its uniformity throughout the country: no voting by mail, no multiple choice bulletins more or less well-stalled, not Dozens of voting procedures different from each other … and therefore little taken for dispute.
We expected a lot in the Bolsonaro clan of the report of the Brazilian armies on the elections, but he did not detect fraud and the challenge of the result by the president of the president (the Liberal Party) did not really taken. Demonstrations are still in progress in front of the barracks to ask that the army is taking matters into their own hands, and Jair Bolsonaro multiplies foot calls in its direction, while his supporters can create riots as they did on December 12 in Brasilia.
fractional landscape
But President Lula having received his “elected diploma” on the part of electoral justice on the same day, the scenario of a putsch based on the denunciation of a rigged vote seems improbable. We will not bet however that Jair Bolsonaro, saying that “everything is in the hands of the people”, does not think about it in the morning by shaving … The second scenario is that of “Trumpization”. The outgoing president would become an arch-opponent and fodder his weapons for a return in 2026, all the more at hand as he is younger than President Lula and that the latter promised not to represent himself.
Many former allies of the far -right president hope for this, but this outcome is not the easiest, again because of the differences between Brazilian and American political systems. Donald Trump has a strong power on the Republican Party, which allows him to have an immense influence in the context of American bipartry.
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