More than 100,000 glaciers should disappear by 2100, even if global warming was limited to 1.5 ° C. In case of elevation of the mercury of + 4 ° C, 80 % of white giants would disappear.
by Audrey Garric
Will the climate crisis ring the death knell for the glaciers? A study, published in Science Thursday, January 5, demonstrates how their future is compromised. Almost half of the white giants in the world, or 104,000, should disappear by 2100 by 2100, even if global warming was limited to 1.5 ° C compared to the pre -industrial era. This objective, the most ambitious of the Paris Agreement, is considered to be out of reach by an increasing number of scientists. More than 80 % of them would be condemned in the event of elevation of the mercury of + 4 ° C, a pessimistic scenario of uncontrolled use of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas), main causes of warming.
These new works, carried out by an international team of scientists, also show that the 215,000 glaciers in the world – with the exception of the caps of Greenland and Antarctica – could lose between 26 % and 41 % of their mass Compared to that of 2015, according to the different temperature scenarios. This study aggravates the previous projections, which notably fueled the latest report of the Intergovernmental Experts Group on Climate Evolution (IPCC).
“We have observed a linear relationship between the increase in global temperature and the loss of mass of glaciers, indicates Etienne Berthier, glaciologist (CNRS) in the laboratory of studies in geophysics and spaceanography in Toulouse, and the One of the authors of the study. Each additional degree fraction increases the melting of the ice. “
the smallest first
The majority of glaciers whose death is announced for the end of the century are the smallest, those whose area is less than 1 km 2 , which actually constitute 80 % of the total. Scientists indicate that their disappearance will only have a minor consequence on the rise in sea level, but that it could “negatively affect the water cycle, tourism, local crops and risks Linked to glaciers “, like collapses. The glaciers, which play an important role of water tower, contribute to supplying water 1.9 billion people in the world.
If all regions of the planet are affected, the glaciers of bass and medium latitudes will prove to be the most affected, especially in Central Europe, in the Caucasus, in Scandinavia, in North Asia, in the west of Canada and the United States or New Zealand. They should undergo strong deglaciation from 2 ° C of warming and almost total at + 3 ° C.
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