The government system is struggling to take into account the different lifestyles of the population, in particular the conditions of transport and housing, according to a study by the Institute of Public Policy.
by Audrey Tlurier
a unprecedented situation, unprecedented response. Confronted with the runaway of inflation after the post-COVVI-19 economic recovery, then in the wake of the war in Ukraine, the executive put in place massive measures to prevent the invoices of the French from flaming: the shield Priceary, which freezes the prices of gas and caps at 4 % those of electricity – before an increase contained at 15 % in 2023 – and discounts to the pump until the end of the year. Was this response the most suitable for income inequalities, but also different lifestyles and consumption of French? Would have had to draw different devices for the fight against energy shock to preserve household purchasing power and growth?
It is to answer these questions that the Institute of Public Policy (PPI), an independent research organization, chose to guide the energy shock its annual budgetary study, which was to be made public Thursday, November 17 and that Le Monde was able to consult. First conclusion of researchers: despite its staggering cost for public finances (more than 110 billion between 2021 and 2023, counting exceptional energy checks), the price shield was the least bad solutions to the crisis.
By limiting the increase in energy prices, he helped maintain inflation – in the calculation of which energy holds a preponderant place – less than 6.5 %. In its absence, “the annual inflation rate would have been 7.5 % in 2022 and 6.4 % in 2023”, notes the study. In doing so, the system made it possible to limit the negative shock on economic activity, generating additional GDP growth of 1.7 points for 2022, the researchers estimate. The shield also made it possible to “avoid an inflationary spiral effect, current inflation supplying future inflation, which itself presents more risk of spreading to other sectors”, explains Antoine Bozio, the director of the iPp.
“strong disparities”
On the other hand, indexing wages on inflation, as was the case in France before 1983 and as the left claimed, would penalize employment and would not significantly lower inequalities in the face of the crisis, indicates the ‘study. “Indexing does not cut inflation, it feeds it,” said Bozio, in reference to the famous Prix-Salar loop.
However, the shield is not free from limits. It thus struggles to support some of the populations most affected by the outbreak of energy and fuels. Admittedly, the energy shock more strongly affects households with low incomes, due to the greater weight of energy expenditure in their budget: the outbreak of energy prices weighed up to 5.8 % on the level of Life of the 20 % most modest French people, compared to only 3.1 % for that of the wealthiest 20 %, calculated the PPI. “But there are strong disparities, within each level of income, depending on the place of residence, the mode of transport used and the type of accommodation,” sums up Mr. Bozio. Thus, the outbreak of energy prices weighs up to 1 point of percentage in addition, on average, on the standard of living of residents outside of urban areas, or in urban areas of less than 500,000 inhabitants, than that the rest of the population.
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