Approaching mid-term elections, the cost of living is imposed as the main concern of voters, more inclined to trust the Republicans on economic issues.
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relaxation, in politics, can turn into nonchalance. Just before leaving Oregon on Saturday October 15, Joe Biden wanted to eat an ice cream, one of his longtime identified pleasures. The procession stopped in front of a brand in the Baskin-Robbins channel, in Gresham, near Portland. The American president chose a well -stocked cornet then responded, by tasting, to some journalists focused on the economic situation of the country. “I am not concerned about the strength of the dollar,” he said. “I am concerned about the rest of the world. Our economy is damn strong.” Joe Biden added that inflation was a global phenomenon. This ultimate remark was certainly exact, but the sequence produced an indestory effect.
The video was relayed on the conservative sites, presented as a conviction in the denial trial made to the Biden administration. She would have reduced and underestimated for a year the question of the cost of living and economic difficulties. Three weeks before the mid-term elections, the subject is however at the heart of the concerns of American voters.
short term
According to a CBS News survey, 65 % of Americans believe that the state of the American economy is rather bad. In addition, 68 % judge that the Biden administration could do more to combat inflation. in the Center for American Political Studies (Harvard/Harris ), a painting draws attention: that of the priorities of the moment, in the eyes of the questioned. Inflation arrives in first position at 37 %, followed by the economy and employment, at 29 %, then immigration and crime. Women’s rights (whose abortion) only appears in fifth position (17 %). As for the assault of January 6, 2021 against the Capitol by the supporters of Donald Trump, it is necessary to descend to the 19 e place to find it (7 %).
At the end of August, the Democrats had fed the hope of a reversal of trend, a possibility of keeping a close majority in the Senate, even in the House of Representatives. However, the latest studies indicate that so -called independent – crucial voters, in a context of powerful polarization – tend to come back in number to republicans.
Professor of economics at the University of Yale, Ray Fair is a pioneer of electoral forecasts. Its mathematical model is primarily based on economic data. In his stage at the end of July, he envisaged a national result for the Democrats, in November, around 46.7 % of the vote. “The basic data have not changed since, he explains. Democrats appear behind the Republicans of about 3 points, even if my equation is not perfect. Inflation is the reason why people are angry, even if unemployment is low. I have studied the effects of the economy over more than a century, since 1916. Inflation has always been a very important criterion in the vote, even if it has been almost absent for three decades. “
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