Global growth is expected to amount to 2.7 % in 2023, after 3.2 % in 2022, which would constitute the lowest performance of the past two decades, with the exception of the 2008 financial crisis and of the pandemic of 2020.
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“The worst is to come.” The economic forecasts published on Tuesday October 11 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have at least the merit of clarity. Global growth is expected to rise to 2.7 % in 2023, or 0.2 percentage point less compared to the last forecasts in July, after 3.2 % in 2022. It would be the lowest performance of these last two decades, with the exception of the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
A third of the international economy could thus experience a contraction in 2022 or 2023. These forecasts remain very hypothetical, due to the uncertainties linked to the war in Ukraine or to the appearance of new variants of the COVID-19. The growth of the planet could thus drop below the threshold of 2 %, with a probability of 25 %.
In the United States, consumption at half mast, with purchasing power cropped by inflation, slowed down the increase in gross domestic product (GDP), from 5.7 % in 2021 to 1.6 % In 2022 to finish, according to the projections of the IMF, at 1 % in 2023. The economy of the euro zone should resist better in 2022 (3.1 %) thanks to the good health of the services sector, and in particular tourism in Italy and Spain.
It should then dive at 0.5 % in 2023, on a continent which is one of the most affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, with risks of energy shortage this winter and a quadrupling of the gas price in one year. “The energy crisis, especially in Europe, is not a passenger shock,” said the IMF, which provides for an even more difficult winter than the one who arrives.
” On prices “
Emerging countries are doing relatively better since they should see their growth remain stable in 2023, at 3.7 %. “While the global economy is heading towards tumultuous waters, financial turbulence may well burst,” notes the Washington institution about the increase in interest rates of the Federal Reserve, which causes an influx of capital emerging countries to the United States.
“The upward pressures on prices represent the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity, by compressing income and undergoing macroeconomic stability,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF. Global inflation has been considerably strengthened (8.8 % in 2022), reaching levels never seen in countries rich in the past forty years.
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