The European Commission also lowered its inflation forecast for the euro zone in 2023, to 5.6 % ( – 0.5 point), and judged that “the peak is now behind” thanks to the lull On energy prices.
More growth and less inflation. The European Commission announced, Monday, February 13, an increase in the increase in its growth forecast for the euro zone in 2023, at 0.9 % (+ 0.6 point). Brussels also estimated that she should “avoid little” a recession this winter. Same trend for the whole of the European Union (EU), whose growth is now announced at 0.8 % (+ 0.5 point).
These figures mark a strong slowdown compared to the 3.5 % growth recorded last year, both in the EU and in the euro zone. But the economy resists better than expected to the consequences of the war in Ukraine. “Despite exceptional shocks”, the European economy avoided a contraction of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the last quarter of 2022. “Favorable developments since the fall have improved the prospects for this year”, writes the European executive In a press release, citing in particular the fall in the wholesale prices of the gas “well below their pre-war level”.
The uncertainty of these forecasts is “high”
The European Commission has also lowered its inflation forecast for the euro zone in 2023, to 5.6 % ( – 0.5 point), and judged that “the peak is now behind” thanks to lull on energy prices. Brussels tables a slightly higher figure throughout the EU, with an increase in consumer prices of 6.4 % in 2023 (-0.6 point).
Inflation dropped for three successive months, after reaching a higher historical level at 10.6 % in October. However, “the opposite winds remain strong,” warns the European Commission. Households and businesses continue to face high energy prices. The inflationary pressures remain, which should “weigh on business activity and weigh the investment”.
Brussels also warned that uncertainty surrounding these forecasts was “high” in the context of persistent geopolitical tensions.