The demographer and critical historian, in an interview with the “world”, projections on mortality and immigration used by the government to defend its pension reform.
Specialist in migration, Hervé Le Bras is a demographer, emeritus researcher at the National Institute of Demographic Studies (INED) and historian at the School of High Studies in Social Sciences (EHESS). According to him, the demographic evolution and the various hypotheses formulated in the report of the pension orientation council (COR) demonstrate that the balance of the system is not in danger, contrary to what the government is affirmed.
You gave, Wednesday 1 er February, a seminar at the School of Hautes Studies in Social Sciences on pension reform. You judge that the demographic projections retained by the government to justify the reform are not solid, why?
In her recent intervention, [Prime Minister] Elisabeth Borne again insisted on the urgency of pension reform due to a serious threat of deficit on the balance of the system. To justify it, the government is based on the COR report, administrative report, and not scientific. This document favors unrealistic mortality scenarios. It takes up the last projections of average and strong decline calculated by INSEE, without saying anything about the projection of low decline. However, recent evolution pleads in favor of a low increase in life expectancy.
From the first year (2022), life expectancy chosen by the COR is eight months higher in the average hypothesis, and a year and a half in the high hypothesis, to what was really Observed [Demographic data published by INSEE in January 2023]. The gap should only increase between the scenarios retained by the COR and reality, because in most developed countries, there is a deceleration, even a beginning of decline in life expectancy, even before the pandemic.
On the other hand, the hospital crisis does not bode well in terms of the fight to come against mortality. The lowest projection of INSEE, ignored by the COR, therefore seems the most likely and in this case, the deficit already modest in 2027 (12 billion euros) would be practically absorbed for the right reason than less progress in progress Life expectancy results in fewer elderly people.
are demographic forecasts, by nature, some?
We often hear that demography is the field that is best for forecast. This is not the case. Not only happens exceptional events, an economic crisis, a pandemic, but mutations in unforeseen and often poorly explained behavior also occur. Thus, in 1979, INSEE projected a life expectancy in 2020 of 70 years for men, then, in 1986, 74, when it reached 79 years in reality.
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