New research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), financed by the MIT-IBM Watson AI laboratory, has revealed insights into the future of artificial intelligence (AI) and its impact on the labor market.
The study has found that concerns about AI replacing human labor in the near future are unfounded. The research highlights that utilizing human resources is still a more cost-effective option, even when considering the potential cost reductions of AI.
The focus of the research is on the practical implementation of AI systems across various industries, particularly those that require computer vision skills. The MIT researchers state that it will take several years before AI can truly become a viable alternative to human labor, and even then, its use will be limited.
Estimates suggest that, even with a significant annual cost reduction of 50% for AI, it will only be economically advantageous for performing 50% of computer vision tasks by 2026. With a smaller cost reduction of 20% per year, the replacement of human workers with AI in the field of computer vision will only become economically viable after several decades.
The primary reason for this limitation is the impressive analytical capabilities and recognition objectives enabled by powerful and expensive AI systems. Additionally, AI is grounded in statistical and symbolic thinking, while human intelligence encompasses a much broader spectrum, including conscious and subconscious processes.
Separate research conducted by Goldman Sachs suggests that sectors such as banking, marketing, healthcare, jurisprudence, retail, and transport can significantly benefit from automation, which may lead to the replacement or displacement of around 18% of the global working population by generative AI.
However, the same study provides a less alarming forecast, stating that generative AI could increase the annual labor productivity growth rate in the United States by 1.5 percentage points within 10 years of its widespread implementation. While this increase in productivity is positive news, the extended timeline for significant growth instills confidence in the future of human jobs. Although the full-scale impact of AI on the world remains to be seen, these studies offer optimism regarding job preservation in the coming decades.