A survey of 8,000 European citizens shows that public opinion wonders about the consequences and the cost of a long conflict and the support to be provided to kyiv.
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The rupture of European countries with Russia, held largely responsible for the aggression against Ukraine, is consumed. But, beyond this consensus, public opinion begins to diverge on the pursuit or not of the efforts made by their respective countries to support kyiv. And the cleavages within the European Union between “falcons”, supporters of a hard line against Moscow, and “Colombes”, favorable to a negotiated peace as quickly as possible, could ultimately paralyze Europe on the international scene.
After more than three months of conflict, two antagonistic camps seem to emerge across Europe, according to a survey by the European Council for International Relations (ECFR) carried out with 8,000 citizens of nine EU and the United Kingdom and published Wednesday June 15. Predominant, the group of “pacifists” (35 %), particularly represented in Italy and Germany, wishes a rapid outcome to war, even at the price of territorial concessions for Ukraine; It is opposed to that of Europeans who favor “justice” (22 %) and the territorial integrity of the country. The latter, notably embodied by the Poles, believe that only a clear defeat of Moscow will sign the end of the war and that in the end Russia will have to be “punished” and responsible for possible war crimes. A fifth of Europeans oscillate between the two camps: hostile to Russia, supporters of a hard policy towards it, they also fear the effects of a long war. Finally, 23 % of those questioned do not rule.
These cleavages cross most European countries and could ultimately establish themselves with political leaders, ending the unity observed since the start of the conflict, analyzes the think tank in its study. “The resilience of European democracies will depend on the capacity of governments to maintain the support of populations for potentially expensive measures,” say the study authors, political scientist Ivan Krastev and the director of the ECFR, Mark Leonard.
energy price and nuclear threat
Already, in many countries, is highlighted the fear of the consequences of a long conflict on purchasing power and the price of energy (fears shared by the Germans, the French, the Italians) . The Swedes, the British, the Poles or the Romanians are more concerned with nuclear threats emanating from Russia.
Echo the fears expressed on May 23 at the Davos Economic Forum by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who was worried about “the world get bored of the war”, some Europeans seem to express a form of ” fatigue “. Forty-two percent believe today that their country “does too much” towards Ukraine, to the detriment of internal problems (against 32 % who think the opposite). In this regard, Poland and Romania come first (58 % and 52 %). Only Portugal, the United Kingdom, Finland and Sweden do not share this opinion.
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