At the shoulder to shoulder in the intentions of votes, the presidential majority and the new Ecological and Social People’s Popular Union are racing in the lead in a context of very strong abstention, according to the last wave of the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey , produced for “Le Monde”, in partnership with Cevipof and the Jean Jaurès Foundation.
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Nothing helps. Four days before the first round of the legislative elections, this ballot is struggling to interest the French. A campaign that is very similar, ultimately, to the one that preceded the presidential election, where nothing was hanging and where the choice of voters was structured late around the three useful votes – for Emmanuel Macron, Jean -Luc Mélenchon or Marine Le Pen – leading to a tripartition of the political landscape.
Thus, the voting intentions in favor of the candidates of the new popular, ecological and social union (clings, bringing together the main left -wing formations) amounted to 27.5 % (margin of error of more or less 1 , 1 point, up 0.5 points compared to mid-May). The candidacies of the presidential majority (together !, Bringing together the Republic on the march – which will become rebirth after the elections -, modem and horizons), collect 28 % of the voting intentions (stable figure, same margin of error ). Finally, if we add the estimated scores of far -right candidates – national rally (20 %, margin of error of more or less 1 point, down from a point compared to the previous wave) and reconquest! (5.5 %, margin of error more or less 0.6 point, down 0.5 points compared to mid -May) – We arrive at a total of 25.5 %. These three families therefore represent more than 80 % of voting intentions.
These are the main lessons of the twelfth wave of our electoral investigation carried out from June 3 to 6, by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, in partnership with the Sciences Po political research center (Cevipof) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for Le Monde. The strength of our panel is due to its amplitude, since the sample used is 10,826 people. The voting intentions are calculated from the respondents “some of going to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 6,080 people. Result: the margin of error is very low (between 0.2 point and 1.1 point).
towards a very strong abstention. With a participation index located between 44 % and 48 % (average weight of 46 %, minus one point in fifteen days), the election of June 12 seems to be heading for an abstention record. As a reminder, in 2017, the participation in the first round of the legislative elections was 48.7 % and had never been so low. Likewise, the interest in the legislative election drops from four points: 70 % of those questioned say they are interested in the election, against 74 % two weeks ago. However, you should be careful. For the presidential election, the slight revival of participation took place in the very last hours.
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