The outgoing president records a score up compared to 2017, with 28.5% of the votes, before the NR candidate, who signs a new record with 23.6% of the vote.
A thunderclap and confirmation. The qualification of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen in the second round of the presidential election, Sunday, April 10, does not constitute a surprise. Since their last duel, in 2017, the Head of State and the Candidate of the National Gathering (NR) have tried to confirm the cleavage instituted at the time between progressives and nationalists, breaking the traditional alternation right-left.
The success of their business in this first round is so manifest that the landscape around them appears devastated, with the exception of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The mechanics of the useful vote has just traded a tripartition of the political scene. With 28.4% of the vote, the tenant of the Elysée records a sharp score up with his previous first round result (24.01%). The hon. Member for Pas-de-Calais also progresses, with 23.4% of the vote. A new record for the extreme right after that of 2017 (21.3%).
The thunder shot of this result is the environment in which it is part of the background of abstention – 26%, the highest for twenty years – with a republican brown burst into a thousand pieces. If Emmanuel Macron remains the favorite, never a representative of the former National Front – whether Marine Le Pen, five years ago, or his father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2002 – had only benefited from A configuration as favorable for the second round. It will be held on Sunday, April 24th.
Limited voice postponements for Macron
On the one hand, the RN candidate has been a positive campaign dynamic for about a month. On March 5, it was measured at 14.5% voting intentions in the Ipsos-Sopra Steria barometer for Le Monde. In the same investigation, Emmanuel Macron caught 30.5% voting intentions on its side.
Especially, reading possible voice postponements has enough to give cold sweats to macronists. The latter fear that a large part of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s electorate, who arrived third, with 21.1% of the vote, does not abstain in two weeks. The fate of the second round is largely played with the supports of the candidate of the People’s Union.
The entourage of the latter warned that the member of the Bouches-du-Rhône, tired of baking to the extreme right such as a “beaver”, did not intend to clearly call to vote in favor of Emmanuel Macron. Between “two evils,” he said Sunday night, he nevertheless enjoined to his constituents not to commit “definitely irreparable errors”. “We must not give one voice to M me Le Pen,” he repeated three times. As in 2017, where he also missed the qualification in the second round (19.58%), he announced wanting to consult his basis on the attitude to adopt. The white vote had appeared at the time as the preferred solution of its supporters.
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