Absence of debates, feeling that the result is already known and there is no issue … The current situation reminds that of twenty years ago, where 28.4% of the registrants had abstained.
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This is the great fear for the first round of the presidential election. A few days before the ballot, all indicators indicate a risk of strong abstention on Sunday 10 April.
The survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (CEVIPOF) and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation for [Nute] shows: the presidential election mobilizes less than in 2017. Thus, On a panel of just under 13,000 people, 80% are saying some or almost some of them to vote, five points less than five years ago. But the previous presidential had already been marked by a high abstention (22.2%).
Beyond this figure, its low growth is also worrying. Since January he has only won three points. With less than a week of the vote, there is something to worry. Indeed, mobilization is often done in the last days of the campaign, especially at least interested in politics. This time, the leverage effect does not seem to exist. “The campaign counts a lot less for the safe categories to vote, it does not change this stable core, explains Céline Bracier, Professor of Political Science Universities, Director of Sciences Po Saint-Germain and specialist for abstention. The Last minute intensity plays on the most distant voters of politics, the most fragile, the most defeating. The absence of dynamics of the campaign leaves aside these people. “
The presidential campaign 2022 has been special. Begun in autumn 2021 with an epidemic rebound of Cvid-19 due to the Omicron Variant, then strike at the end of February by the war in Ukraine, it has never managed to settle in the opinion.
The debates between the main candidates did not take place, the tractings in the street are rare, and the diffuse impression that we already know the final winner – Emmanuel Macron – has returned any interest. According to our survey, more than 66% of respondents believe that Mr Macron will be re-elected on April 24, a sharp figure, but still remained in front of those of all other competitors. “What characterizes this ballot is the impression that there is no issue, that Emmanuel Macron will be re-elected. The configuration recalls 2002 where everyone was persuaded by the presence of Lionel Jospin at the second Tour. This can allow lots of erratic ultimate movements, “Delegate leader of Ipsos.
” The campaign did not exist “
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