The ninth wave of the survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria with CEVIPOF and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation for “[Nute]” indicates that several unknowns remain before the first round of the election, scheduled Sunday.
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A four days of the first round of the French presidential election, Sunday, April 10, takes place a political horizon more than Incertain. If the final that seems to be emerging between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen has been the one for several months, the gap between the outgoing president and the far-right candidate does not end up tightening, including in the projections of Second round. In ambush on the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon could well create the surprise.
At the end of this funny country – where the political debate has always passed in the background, first behind the epidemic of Covid-19 and behind the war in Ukraine – the state of mind of the French is A potentially detonating mix. They are thus not interested in an election that has not seen debate between the candidates, and even fewer confrontations of projects. Some 37% of them feel close to “angry France and very protest”, 55% of the “dissatisfied”.
Everything happens as if the current movements were waiting until the day of the vote to emerge in broad daylight. These are the main lessons of the ninth wave of the electoral survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (CEVIPOF) and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation for Le Monde.
The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 12,600 people. The voting intentions in the first round are calculated from the surveyors “some to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, 8,341 people. Result: The margins of error for the first round are very low, between 0.2 and 0.9 points. The investigation was carried out from April 2 to 4, about ten days after the previous one.
A presumed finish known but tight
With respectively 26.5% of the voting intentions (margin of error of more or less 0.9 point) and 21.5% (same margin of error), Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen should again to face in the second round, as in 2017. Mr. Macron – who has brought his candidacy late – has always been running in mind since October 2021. He knows however an erosion of voting intentions in his favor (- 4 points in one Month) When, over the same period, the extreme right contendant won 7 points. It must be said that Mr. Macron’s campaign seems laborious and himself seems remote, carrier of unpopular measures (the retirement age repelled at age 65 or the counterparties required for the active solidarity income). Proof of its dynamic, m me Le Pen convinces for its part of the electors of Eric Zemmour (which collects 10%, margin of error of more or less 0.6 point) but also of M. Macron.
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