The outgoing president leads the voting intentions, with 56.5 %, from the second round of the ballot, Sunday April 24. The extreme right candidate would harvest 43.5 %, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey for “Le Monde” performed on Friday.
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A few hours before the second round of the presidential election, Sunday April 24, the political situation is of an unprecedented ambivalence. On the one hand, Emmanuel Macron, the outgoing president, continues to race in mind and appears to be the favorite of the ballot with voting intentions amounting to 56.5 % of those interviewed against 43.5 % for Marine le Marine Pen (margin of error more or less 1.1 point). On the other, the extreme right reaches a height never seen at this stage of the countryside.
These are the main lessons of the electoral investigation carried out on April 22, by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for Le Monde. For this survey, 12,129 people were questioned, according to the quota method. The voting intentions for April 24 are calculated from respondents “some of going to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 7,549 people, hence a very low margin of error.
These estimates show a certain stability with the results of the previous presidential survey carried out from April 15 to 18 by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, in partnership with the Sciences Po political research center (Cevipof) and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation for Le Monde. Emmanuel Macron was credited with 56 % of voting intentions against 44 % for Marine Le Pen.
a solid base
But in the meantime the debate of the Entre-deux Tours took place, Wednesday, April 20. However, it was Mr. Macron who rather appeared as the winner of the confrontation. Ms. Le Pen seemed less credible than him, several of her blurred and muddled proposals, and she lacked “presidentiality” in the face of an outgoing head of state who precisely highlighted this asset.
Despite these handicaps, the base of the candidate of the National Rally (RN) appears very solid: her voters are sure of their choice at 92 %, against 94 % for Emmanuel Macron. The stagnation of voting intentions in favor of the candidate president therefore looks like a sort of settlement, without an accelerator effect for him after the debate, nor notable dynamics.
In addition, if Mr. Macron wins in the second round on Sunday evening, it will be a victory darkened by heavy political clouds. The re -elected president would maintain himself at the head of a country where the extreme right collects almost half of the votes and, therefore, deeply divided. The situation would be completely new since five years ago, Mr. Macron had collected 66.10 % of the votes against 33.9 % for Ms. Le Pen. Or, potentially, a difference of 10 points.
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