Two thirds of them prefer to vote null, white or abstain, rather than pronouncing for the outgoing president. Behind the result of this consultation, the unknown of voice postponements for the extreme right endures.
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The sponsors of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, candidate of France unsuitable (LFI) for the presidential election, have decided. Consulted as in 2017 on their choice for the second round, they are just a third (33.40%) to assume to vote for the president Emmanuel Macron, Sunday, April 24th. The remainder of these 215,000 support will fall (28.96%) or vote white or zero (37.65%). Anxious to house the diversity of his electorate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon had limited his message, in the evening of the first round, “not a voice for Marine Le Pen”, the candidate of the national gathering (RN). “The result of this consultation is not a setpoint given to anyone, say Sunday the organizers, each will conclude and will vote in conscience, as he sees fit.”
The absence of the far-right candidate was the only limit in this consultation, as five years ago. At the time already, in the face of this second round against Emmanuel Macron in Marine Le Pen, nearly two-thirds of the “insou” consulted preferred to vote white, null or abstain.
Behind these two results almost identical between 2017 and 2022, the same reality: in fact, the voter reports of Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters to Marine Le Pen exist. According to the surveys, they would be between 16% to 27% to consider turning to the claimant of the RN in the second round, against 30% to 40% for Emmanuel Macron.
Strange between-two-tours
Uncertain numbers but say the trivialization of the extreme right. On the side of the RN, if one regrets that the Openist option has not been proposed to the supporters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, we also read these results with enthusiasm. “33% for Emmanuel Macron, we say that everything is open, Marine Le Pen can very well win next Sunday,” said CNews one of his spokespersons, Philippe Ballard. Five years ago, five days before the second round, about 18% of the surveyed surveyed for Jean-Luc Mélenchon on April 23 wanted to put a Marine Le Pen newsletter in the ballot box, they were finally much less (between 7% and 11% according to different polls) to do it. This year, the extreme unpopularity of the outgoing president with the “insou” could play and mitigate this gap, unless it massively feeds abstention.
“In 2017, we were 7% of postponement, I think we will be much higher”, says the researcher in political science, Rémi Lefebvre, author of need to despair from the left? (Textual, 2022) “Vote Macron, walking is very high for many voters. Abstention, there will be a lot. As for the policy of the worst, it concerns the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon less aligned with the Left-right cleavage … “The latter could paradoxically be less present than in 2017, Jean-Luc Mélenchon having this year, anchored his campaign in some left tradition by mooring populist accents. “This disables a little vote for Marine Le Pen. The fact that he has made a left campaign could increase the share of abstention”, believes Mr. Lefebvre.
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