The regional election on Sunday in Rhineland-of-Nord-Westphalia marks a decline in social democrats, while the popularity of Olaf Scholz, in post for six months, has a sharp decline.
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Historical bastion of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Rhineland-of-Nord-Westphalia is also the most populous Land in Germany (18 million inhabitants, 21 % of the country’s population). For these two reasons, the regional elections organized there, Sunday, May 15, had the value of a test for Olaf Scholz, six months after his arrival at the head of the federal government. The result is a camouflet for its party: 26.7 % (- 4.5 points compared to the 2017 elections), the worst score never recorded by the SPD in this industrial region of northwestern Germany.
Arrived at the top with 35.7 % of the votes (+ 2.8 points), the Conservatives (CDU) won a brilliant victory. For them, the game was far from won. In October 2021, their leader, Armin Laschet, unhappy candidate for the succession of Angela Merkel to the Chancellery, had left her duties as Minister-President of Rhineland-Du-Westphalie, which he had held since 2017. For many ‘Observers, this hasty departure was heralding a defeat of the CDU in the May 15 elections. It has not happened. On the contrary: seven months after his arrival at the head of the government of Rhine-of-Nord-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst offers the CDU a without appeal victory in this land that the Conservatives only led twice in addition to a half-century.
The other major Sunday winners are the Greens. Arrived in third position with 18.2 % of the votes, they are the ones who progressed the most compared to the 2017 elections: + 11.8 points. Conversely, those who have the most regressed are the Liberal Democrats (FDP): they only collected 5.9 % of the vote, 6.7 points less than five years ago. Other forces in decline: the far -right AFD party (5.4 %, – 2 points) and the Radical Left Party Die Linke (2.1 %, – 2.8 points), whose withdrawal registered in the legislative elections of September was confirmed, eight months later, in this region. 2>
recovery of the CDU
Two main lessons can be learned from these results. The first concerns the CDU. In opposition to the federal level since the departure of Angela Merkel, the ex-chancellier party remains powerful on a regional scale. From this point of view, her victory in Rhineland-du-Nord-Westphalia echoes the one she obtained, a week earlier, in the Schleswig-Holstein: 43.4 % of the votes (+ 11.4 points per report to 2017). In these two Länder, the victory of the conservatives is certainly explained in part by the popularity of the outgoing ministers-presidents. But it also testifies to the current recovery of the CDU under the authority of its new president, Friedrich Merz. Since his election at the head of the party, in January, he has been striving to embody an opposition both vigorous and responsible for the government of Olaf Scholz. This positioning seems to appeal to voters: if the legislative elections were held these days, the CDU would come first with 26 % to 28 % of the votes, ahead of the SPD, credited from 20 % to 22 %, according to the latest polls.
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