Chronic. If the Fabien Roussel communist did not show up in the presidential election, Jean-Luc Mélenchon would have realized the dream of his life: he would have succeeded, Sunday, April 10, to qualify for the second round and, in doing so, Dethrone Marine Le Pen at the end of a long political path that has led her from the far left to the People’s Union, passing through the Socialist Party (PS), then by the Left Party.
The Roussel Cactus is not an accident. It is the result of the conflictual relations that the leader of the “insou” has with the rest of the left, including with that of which it is supposed to be the nearest: the communists, who had, at first, bet on him to attempt. ‘Stroke their inexorable decline, felt entrained in a personal adventure that threatened their electoral alliances. They broke up. The accounts always end up selling.
In the evening of the first round, the only apparent gain for Jean-Luc Mélenchon is to be mounted on a walk. Fourth in 2012 and 2017, he climbed to the third in 2022, thanks to a constant progression of his votes: he had recorded 11.1% of the votes cast ten years ago, had passed to 19, 6% five years ago and climbs this time to nearly 22%. In view of this dynamic, it would almost be enough for it to be patient for 2027 if the age caregiver – 70 years – the candidate was now more in the shelf than in conqueror.
The third man’s place is not the most comfortable in the French electoral system which, the presidential election to the legislative, aims to promote the bipolarization of political life. François Fillon who occupied him in 2017 disappeared from the radars; François Bayrou, who was raised in 2007, could only fulfill his project by rallying to Emmanuel Macron ten years later. This time, however, Jean-Luc Mélenchon can hope more than all his predecessors.
disturbed story
The first effect of its 22% is indeed to boost the symbolic representation of the political recomposition desired by the two finalists. Since 2017, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen agree that the left-right cleavage is now supplanted by the fracture between progressives and nationalists, organized around an antagonian vision of the European construction. The Mélenchon dynamics disrupts the story: it certainly has a significant eurosceptic component, but it feeds mainly on the refusal of the match announced Macron-Le Pen, of the ecological concern, very prevailing among young people and antiliberalism that has always been vigorous in the French left.
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