More than 80% of imports by Cairo of this key cereal of its diet come from the two countries in conflict.
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Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, on February 24, the Egyptian authorities multiply reassuring messages about their wheat supplies, as well as the measures to prevent shortages. The world’s largest importer of wheat, with the Black Sea as the main source, Egypt is particularly exposed on this commodity which constitutes the basis of the diet of its 105 million inhabitants.
Between its strategic reserves and the local harvest that must begin in mid-April, Cairo said they have sufficient stocks until the end of 2022. But the country already suffers the soil the outbreak of prices on food and energy products . Strongly indebted and weakened by the Pandemic of Covid-19, Egypt has again solicited the help of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), confirmed the institution, Wednesday, March 23rd.
“The Egyptians consuming twice the world average bread, and the government already subsidizing the price of wheat for this bread up to $ 3.3 billion [3 billion euros] a year before the Russo War Ukrainian, the threat of soaring wheat prices for the Egyptian budget is real “, Analysis Michaël Tanchum, a researcher associated with the European Council of International Relations and Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington. Egypt needs about 10 million tons of wheat a year to provide subsidized bread to 72 million inhabitants.
Temporary export ban
In 2021, the state imported more than 6 million tonnes, and the private sector more than $ 12 million. More than 80% of these imports come from Russia and Ukraine. Before the war, the wheat class already evolved at a record level. In the second half of the semester, the prices rose by 25% due to the disruption of the global supply chain, low agricultural yields and wheat thesaurization and other cereals by some countries, including China.
“This storm has turned into a tsunami with the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which pushed wheat prices by 75% in just two weeks,” says Tanchum. On March 6, the Minister of Finance, Mohamed Mait said that the state’s wheat bill had already increased by 15 billion Egyptian books (the), 744 million euros. Cairo plans to diversify its supplies, particularly in Europe and America, and especially increase the share of the room.
The goal of the Ministry of Agriculture is to buy 6 million tonnes locally in 2022, compared to 3.5 million in 2021. A temporary ban on wheat exports, and other core crops, was decreed. Mid-March, the authorities also imposed on local producers from selling some of their harvest to three state companies. Offenders are exposed to five years in prison. As an incentive, the Ministry of Agriculture has increased the purchase price of the wheat ton at 5,900.
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