With the outbreak of raw materials, including wheat, the risk of planned food insecurity on Africa and the Middle East, in particular, alerts the OECD.
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The war in Ukraine breaks the momentum of the global recovery. It should amputate global growth of about 1 percentage point and inflate 2.5 points inflation, according to estimates of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), published on Thursday, March 17. “The crisis is already manifested by an increase in energy prices, food and certain metals,” says Laurence Boone, the Chief Economist of the OECD. The organization based in Paris, which established last December on a global growth of 4.5% in 2022, canceled the publication of its forecasts, planned in early March, due to the high uncertainties that weigh on the economic situation.
Fears of wheat shortage, including one third of the world’s exports come from Ukraine and Russia, leaned classes. They flew 70%, a few days after the Russian military offensive, while they had already doubled over the last two years. The OECD anticipates, for 2022, a drop in wheat exports around the world, between 7% and 12%, and between 5% and 7% for other cereals. These tensions on markets lead to an increase in the food price index, the reference indicator established by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, today at record levels. In February, it exceeded the 140 points, while it was fruiting the 90 points in 2016.
Shortages
An increase that fears a worsening of food insecurity in the regions of Africa and the Middle East, where countries such as Egypt import 80% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. “It is possible, however, to partly fill the decline in Russian and Ukrainian exports by increasing elsewhere on spring cereal crops and avoiding export restrictions,” says M me Boone. These restrictions have multiplied, aggravating the risks of shortages. After Hungary and Moldova, Russia announced, Wednesday, March 16, want to limit its wheat exports to ensure its food security.
At the end of February, the oil barrel course is also mounted up to $ 139 (126 euros), a level never reached for ten years, before reflving below the $ 100 mark. Fragilized outlets of the Covid-19 pandemic, the South countries have much smaller budgetary room for cushioning this shock. Their inhabitants look hard at rising prices, with a share of their spending devoted to energy and food much higher than elsewhere. “The sharp rise in food costs and fuels could increase the risk of disorders in some regions, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to the Caucasus and Central Asia”, warns the International Monetary Fund (IMF ), in a note published Tuesday, March 15th.
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