The banks lent average 1.09% in February against 1.06% in December 2021. A shudder that only starts.
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Rarely suspense will have been also limited: the rates of real estate credits will go up. The forecast is unanimously unanimously, without providing an excessive concern. “The trend is certainly rising, but the rates will remain very attractive in 2022”, reassures Pierre Chapon, the co-founder of the broker in credit Pretto.
Indeed, the average credit rate amounts to 1.09% in February 2022, according to the Credit Housing / CSA observatory, compared to 1.06% in December 2021. And the scales announced by the banks At the er March confirm the trend. “We observe increases in the order of 0.15 point, after 0.10 points in February for average rates. The best profiles record an increase of 0.24 point, while they had been Until now, “says Cécile Roquelure, director of borrowing studies.
This progressive rise is probably only beginning, given the monetary and bond context in the euro area and, now, from the war in Ukraine. “One can consider a recovery of the order of 0.30 to 0.40 points here in the summer, which would bring the rates over twenty years around 1.40%,” completes the spokesperson for better , Maël Bernier.
The Russo-Ukrainian conflict has created an unprecedented situation for a few days: the OAT 10 years (assimilable obligation of the Treasury), serving as a reference to the banks to fix the rate of their real estate credits, has fallen sharply from the beginning Conflict, but banks continue to increase their rates. “The scales should further progress, but the geopolitical situation creates great uncertainty. It has never been so difficult to achieve forecasts,” says Maël Bernier.
The trend is rising, but the situation will be far from problematic a priori. Remember: the banks lent to 1.50% on average five years ago, in the fourth quarter of 2017 precisely, according to the Credit Housing / CSA observatory, and even at 2.01% in the first quarter of 2016.
The current lift should not grip the market. Because banks will remain attentive not to inflate their rates too much to fulfill their credit production objectives. The year 2021 has proved exceptional: the issue of new habitat credits reached 274 billion euros, or 6.4% more than 2020. This is a historic record, Just above 273.7 billion euros in 2017.
Debt Rate under surveillance
But the rise in stone prices in the last five years (+ 12% for apartments and +18.8% for houses in France, according to Century 21), however, complicates the task of borrowers. At the equivalent rate, it was easier to become owner a few years ago, since the prices were well lower. Especially since the conditions of access to credit have been struck. “It was still possible to borrow without a contribution two or three years ago. Now this is the exception,” says Maël Bernier.
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