The conflict in Eastern Europe reinforces Emmanuel Macron’s stature, which even more broadly aheads its main competitors, according to the latest IPSOS-Sopra Steria survey for “Le Monde”.
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As the deadline is getting closer, the candidacy of Emmanuel Macron is strengthening. A little over a month before the first round of the presidential election, the head of state, now officially candidate, does not only the race in mind, but again the gap with his first two prosecutors, namely The pretenders of extreme right, Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour. The war in Ukraine and the trauma it arouses among the voters play a considerable role in this dynamic.
This is one of the main lessons of the sixth wave of the survey conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Sciences Po Political Research Center (CEVIPOF) and the Jean Jaurès Foundation for [Nute]. The strength of our panel is its amplitude, since the sample used is 13,651 people. The voting intentions in the first round are calculated from the surveyors “some to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 8,585 people. Result: The margins of error for the first round are very low, between 0.1 and 0.9 point.
This study was conducted from 24 to 27 February, at the beginning of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, an event that makes it even more difficult to conduct a campaign already disturbed by the Pandemic of Covid-19 and the restrictions sanitary. To better understand the evolution of the state of opinion and measure the impact of the war in Ukraine on the presidential campaign, Ipsos launched from Wednesday 2 to Thursday, 3 March an additional investigation, questioning 3,599 panelists .
“Premium at the outgoing”
The results are extremely informative: in less than a week, Emmanuel Macron progresses 4 points. It goes from 26.5% (error margin of more or less 0.9 point) to 30.5% voting intentions (margin of error of more or less 1.9 point). Its direct competitors erode: Marine Le Pen loses a point (14.5%, margin of error of plus or minus 1.4 point), Eric Zemmour, two (13%, even margin of error) and Valérie Pécresse , one (11.5%, margin of error of plus or minus 1.3 point). For the two extreme right candidates, their support spent in Vladimir Putin explains this dry loss. In contrast to the political spectrum, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, gains 0.5 points and reaches 12% (margin of error of more or less 1.3 point).
A war at the gates of Europe, a pandemic that is not yet finished … The context is unpublished on the eve of a presidential election. This succession of crises thus reinforces the leaving premium that already allowed Emmanuel Macron to widely prevail the other candidates. Of course, things can still move. Nevertheless, the advance that Mr. Macron encompasses. At the beginning of March, its potential score is twice as high as that of its main competitor, Marine Le Pen, which distancies Eric Zemmour.
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