The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy shared their information about the threats that targeted Kiev. However, they made a different reading, the Anglo-Saxons holding an attack, the Europeans possible as possible a negotiation.
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The West’s response to Russian threats that have been aimed at Ukraine for months also played in the field of secret services. A group of five countries bringing together the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy shared their information, but this knowledge mutualisation did not lead to the adoption of a common strategy . On the contrary. Two camps emerged: that of Anglo-Saxons holding that Vladimir Putin would go on to the attack, and that of continental Europeans believing that there was still room for a negotiation.
According to a French diplomatic source, the US and British intelligence services have indicated to their allies, in October 2021, “the possibility of a Russian intervention in Ukraine”. They do not have, at all, shared the elements that allowed them to reach this conclusion. It was not until a political decision, coming from the White House, reported this same source, for a process of advanced cooperation to be set up, in mid-November, between the US, British, French, German intelligence agencies. and Italian.
If most of the information passed during bilateral contacts, this “group of five” met several times. Around the table: Sir Simon Gass, Head of the Joint Intelligence Committee (Joint Intelligence Committee), who supervises the activity of British secret services; April Hains, the Director of US National Intelligence (DNI); Elisabetta Belloni, at the head of the Department of Information for Security, to coordinate Italian intelligence; French Lawrence Nunez, National Coordinator of Intelligence and the Fight Against Terrorism (CNRLT); and Johannes Geismann, Secretary of State with the German Chancellery in charge of intelligence services, replaced after the departure of Angela Merkel.
“Far from being surprised”
In December, April Haines announces to its allies that his country considers that the reconciling statements by Russian President are only a lure and serve only to save time. The goal of Vladimir Putin, according to her, is to invade Ukraine. A point of view shared by the British. “If the United Kingdom and the United States have accurately predicted Putin’s plans, it is that they were very close to Ukrainians,” explains Dominic Grieve Chairman of the British Intelligence Services Parliamentary Committee (SSI) until the end of 2019. Under its direction, the SAI has published a report on the aggressiveness of Russian services that has only been unveiled in the summer of 2020.
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