High dependent on Russia and Ukraine, Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria or Yemen fear grain shortages after delivery stops and the significant price increase.
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The invasion of Ukraine by Russia weakens the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, strongly dependent on these two countries for their wheat supply. While the Ukrainian ports are closed, that the Black Sea traffic is disturbed, and that the Russian cereal trade is at a stop, the wheat course has increased by 23% in February, a record since 2015.
Wheat supply, and its price, could be durably affected if the war continues, and under the effect of sanctions imposed in Moscow. However, in the countries of the region, faced with structural crises, and for some to wars, a rise in the price of bread, or even shortages of this staple, could lead to a renewed social tension.
Monday, February 28, Egypt has withdrawn, for the second time since Thursday, a call for tenders for the purchase of wheat after receiving only three French and American offers – at a price it has judged too high. First importer of wheat in the world, the country of 102 million inhabitants still has nine months of reserves. If Egypt has diversified its sources of supply, particularly in Romania, 50% of its imports of wheat in 2021 from Russia and 30% Ukraine.
The Cairo authorities plan to import 3.5 million tonnes of wheat into 2022, compared with 5.5 million in 2021, in addition to the 3.5 million tonnes which have been produced locally. The private sector has imported 6.9 million tonnes in 2021, according to data cited by the Reuters agency.
Funded bread
The government’s wheat reserves are used to provide subsidized bread to 71 million Egyptians. After reducing the weight of the subsidized galette, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouli announced in February that his price – unchanged since 1988 – would be revised upwards. Haunted by the “bread riots” of 1977, and the 2011 popular uprising, the authorities have given up to cope with the wrath of the street.
A breakdown of supplies or flight of courses would occur at a very delicate moment for Algeria, the fifth world importer of cereals and second wheat consumer in Africa. The country, which depended exclusively on the French market, had begun in recent years to diversify its suppliers by turning to Russia and Ukraine to buy cheaper. Its current reserves cover six months of demand in a context of overall food prices and social tensions.
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