Tribune. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia and the sustainable war that settles in the heart of Europe remind us how much energy has always shaped geopolitics, determined the great powers and often the outcome of the conflicts.
All international orders in modern history were based on an energy resource: in the nineteenth century, coal was the backdrop of the British Empire; Oil was at the heart of the “century American”; and Vladimir Putin, for twenty years, has made energy a major political instrument, both to restore its national coat of arms (large electrification campaign, etc.), and to affirm its regional power and become unavoidable on the global energy chessboard.
Dependency
Russia, today, has a theoretical transit capacity of more than 250 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Europe, which corresponds to more than half of the annual gas consumption of the Old continent (450 billion cubic meters).
Of course, all countries do not have the same dependence on Russian gas. In several Member States of the European Union (EU), the essential, or all, imports of natural gas comes from Russia. This is the case of Latvia (100%), Finland (97.6%), or Hungary (95%). This is also the case for Germany, which depends 66% of Russia for its natural gas consumption and is the first importer of the EU.
France, meanwhile, has a more diverse supply. We provide us with Norway (36%), Russia only arrives (17%), in front of Algeria (8%).
What to conclude from all this? Five reflections are needed at this stage.
First, this energy dependence vis-à-vis Russia has forged because of us! Like the sleeping lamb, Europe has shown a “myopia” guilty since the three gas crises of the winters 2005 to 2008, which were premonitory.
Nabucco rather than North Stream 2
Already, Vladimir Putin had put pressure on Kiev, and on the Westerners, to deliver the costs he wanted the Europeans of the West. The way of the reason should therefore lead us to diversify our gas supplies, by completing, for example, the nabucco gas pipeline, south-European corridor bypassing Russia, imagined by the Commission, rather than indulgent body and soul in the Arm of Russian interests, by investing in Nord Stream 2. The financial interests have undoubtedly carried away on the minimum of political prudence and the protection of sovereign interests of the Union.
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