Editorial of the “World”. Brandies for several weeks while the Russian threat was becoming more precise, the famous “massive and unprecedented” sanctions promised by Western democracies fell on Friday 25 February, in response to the invasion of Ukraine by the Russia. They are two kinds: on the one hand, personal measures towards President Vladimir Putin, his Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, and many leaders whose assets abroad are frozen, and else. a series of sanctions intended to strike the Russian economy.
This restrictive measures is based on the finance, transport, technology, energy and visa policy. In the financial sector, they aim to block the access of great Russian banks to the markets of Western capital. However, no consensus has been reached at this stage to decide on the hardest and most effective financial penalty against Moscow: the eviction of Russia of the SWIFT messaging system, used for financial transactions by more than 11 000 banks and institutions in 200 countries. Such a decision would considerably penalize Russia because, by striking the system of payment of its energy exports, it would deprive the Russian budget of its main resource and therefore complicate the financing of the war effort.
Why is there no consensus? Because such a strategy would have painful counterparties for Western economies, especially those of the European Union, the first commercial partner of Russia, dependent on its gas and oil.
The lesson of the sanctions adopted since 2014 in response to the annexation of the Crimea by Russia, to the intervention in the Donbass and the destruction of the civil plane of Malaysia Airlines is now obvious: these decisions Measured, without major negative consequences for European economies, punished Russia but remained without effect on its behavior. Personal sanctions are politically symbolic. Really effective sanctions are those whose magnitude necessarily has a cost for the countries that issue them. A real economic isolation of Russia will inevitably bring up an increase in inflation, a decline in growth, disturbances on the financial markets.
Face the price of solidarity
The truth must be called European public opinions. If there is currently consensus within Western democracies, it is on a direct non-intervention of their armed forces in Ukraine, countries to which they are not bound by a defense treaty. There is also consensus on the fact that Russia is the abuser and that his invasion of Ukraine endanks not only international law, but also the entire security building in Europe. If we consider that this issue is existential for our democracies, there are, at least, an economic price to pay. Think weighing on Russia without sacrifices is an illusion.
While the army, the Ukrainian leaders and civilians oppose a heroic resistance to the Russian invader, the time has come for the European political leaders to clearly confront the price of solidarity and to prepare opinions. . Return to the cost of sanctions today, it is exposed to having to pay an infinitely higher price if Vladimir Putin reaches his goal in Ukraine.