Until then, Russia delivered nearly 40% of the gas consumed by the twenty-seven. Far after other suppliers, Norway, Algeria or the United States. The scenario of a total removal of Russian deliveries seems unpleasant.
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The attack of the Russian army against Ukraine, Thursday, February 24, lets augur serious tensions in the energy markets. For the first time since 2014, the price of the barrel of oil has exceeded the $ 100 (approximately 89.20 euros). Up to $ 105 in the morning, ie + 8.8% compared to Wednesday, February 23 for the North Sea Brent.
But gas supply worries even more, as well as Europe’s dependence on Russian deliveries. In the Dutch market, continental reference, the price of megawattah leaped by 40%, at the same time, up to 125 euros, knowing that the resumption of economic activity already has prices since summer 2021.
In the last six years, Russia delivered “nearly 40%” of the gas consumed by the countries of the European Union (EU), depending on the data compiled by the Bruegel reflection circle. Far after other suppliers, Norway, Algeria or USA. Should we now expect such a percentage less, because of European sanctions, because of a Russian retention?
“Maintain this reputation as a reliable contractual partner”
From Tuesday, February 22, Berlin suspended the commissioning of the North Stream pipeline 2. This long pipe would have allowed the Russians to double their exchange capacities with Germany under the Baltic Sea – and therefore to get around Even more easily the Brotherhod pipeline (“fraternity”) passing through Ukraine.
However, the scenario of a total removal of Russian deliveries in Europe seems little plausible. In view of their declining production, particularly in the Netherlands, and of the little volumes available, the EU States would not be able to carry out an integral substitution. As for Russia and Gazprom, renounce long-term contracts would imply for them to deprive yourself of a considerable annuity. “[Vladimir] Putin wants to maintain this reputation as a reliable contractual partner for Europe, not for Ukraine, but for the EU,” assumes Yuriy Vitrenko, CEO of the Naftogaz group, Ukrainian national company, about Russian President.
Russia can already, however, strongly restrict the volume on the “spot” market. That of the day after the next day. In January, Russian deliveries by pipeline to the EU are thus already descended to about 8 billion cubic meters (M 3 ), says Thierry Bros, professor at Sciences Po Paris; well below 13 billion m 3 usual. From this point of view, “Russia uses gas as a weapon instead of using it as a commodity,” says Vitrenko. The boss of the Total Energies, Patrick Patrick Pouyanné, cited by AFP, says “convinced” to the opposite.
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