The National Demographic Studies Institute published, Wednesday, December 22, a marketing note that sweeps the main upheavals related to the sanitary crisis, mainly in 2020, of the birth expectancy.
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Decrease in births and weddings, increased mortality … The CVIV-19-related health crisis has resulted in demographic upheaval, on which the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED) returned to Conjoncture published, Wednesday, December 22, in the magazine population.
The five authors of the article by about sixty pages are based on the latest French data, which goes back to 2019 for some, and for the most recent at the beginning 2021. While recognizing that “COVID has Summer a shock “and resulted in unprecedented results, Didier Breton, Professor of Demography at the University of Strasbourg and researcher associated with INED, relativize this observation.
He believes that “it will not change the great demographic trends” to work for a long time, such as the maintenance of the fertility index to less than two children per woman, the mortality gaps between women and men and deamour to marriage. The point on the main lessons.
a lower birth rate
In France, in 2020, 736,000 children have emerged, the lowest number since 1945 (- 17,000 compared to 2019), as already raised in January. INSEE. The numbers of the beginning of the year 2021, stack nine months after the first confinement, also show a historically low number of births. “On this point, the COVID has clearly had an accelerator effect, even if the decline in birth is engaged for more than ten years, observes Mr. Breton. We could have thought that we would attend an increase in conceptions during Containment, but it has not been the case at all. “
The drop is particularly visible in two age groups, raises the INED, in the youngest (under 25) and over 40 years old. For the first, “the reasons are probably due to less cohabitations with confinement, and more uncertainty related to the economic future”, while “the difficulties of access to procreation services Medically Assisted [PMA] “have probably played a role for the latter, according to Mr. Breton.
The slightest recourse to the voluntary interruption of pregnancy (IVG) recorded in 2020 (220 000, ie – 4% compared to 2019), despite the government measures taken to facilitate access to drugs during the period, “Allow to assume that the pregnancies started during the weeks of confinement were generally fewer,” adds the article.
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