In the absence of external shocks, inflation in Russia may slow down in the second half of 2022 – such dates in a conversation with “Tape.ru” called economist Sergey Hestanov. He added that the competent policy of the Central Bank and the braking of world inflation processes can be facilitated by this, tightening credit and monetary policy.
The inflationary expectations of Russians for the next year in December updated the maximum of February 2016, reaching a record 14.8 percent. The growth compared with November amounted to 1.3 percentage points. This is stated in the study “Infomant”, which was prepared on the request of the Central Bank.
When inflation goes to a decline
Hestanov explained that the reasons for the record growth of inflation quite a lot, a significant role was played by both external and internal factors. Moreover, the Bank of Russia’s attempt to overcome these processes by increasing interest rates give a certain effect, but it is not enough.
“The same actions of the Central Bank in 2015 were well studied. Then it took about one and a half years to brake inflation and send it closer to those numbers that are determined by the inflation targeting policy. In our case, it is 4 percent. Therefore, if there is no external Shocks, I believe that in the second half of 2022, there is a chance that we will manage to slow down inflation. And, I emphasize that it is not about reducing prices. But this, of course, is only possible in the absence of external shocks. A strong fall of the ruble, for example, May destroy the whole process, “the economist said.
Interlocutor “Trent.ru” also drew attention to the fact that inflation rose not only in Russia, but also in all developed countries, and, much higher than Target. Because our inconomic situation is largely a reflection of world processes.
“And in the United States, and in the EU, the inflation over the target is even more noticeable than in Russia. So in something there is a global problem, in something – trends in the domestic food market. I hope in the middle of the next The World Central Bank of the Central Bank still toughen its credit and monetary policy, which also slows down inflation, “he concluded Hestanov.