Russian scientists of the Higher School of Economics described the spread of COVID-19 using the Mathematical Volterra Trays Model, which describes the interactions between the predator and the victim or between the parasite and its owner. This made it possible to bind bursts of incidence of coronavirus with removal of restrictions. The article of the researchers was published in the magazine Eurasian Economic Review, briefly about scientific work describes the press release on the school site.
Scientists adapted the mathematical model proposed in 1926 to predict the spread of various diseases. In it, they became contaminated by coronavirus as predators, and healthy people vulnerable to COVID-19 are used as victims. The rate of dissemination of the disease turned out to be dependent on the restrictive measures and other factors, including the number of unreleased and probabilities of infection while the pandemic goes to the decline.
The model applied on the outbreak of Ebola fever in Africa in 2014-2015, as a result of which she managed to accurately predict the peak of morbidity and the total number of overcomes. The model was then used to predict the COVID-19 pandemic, for which data on the daily number of the considered in the first half of the year 2020 in 20 WHO member countries. The restrictive measures taken by these countries were also taken into account.
It turned out that the power of the second wave of a pandemic depended on the weakening of restrictive measures. This was especially noticeable on the example of countries that introduced restrictions, and then weakened them, as a result of which the incidence rose from low to a high level. However, it was possible to reduce the impassive power of the disease. On the other hand, in the United States, who have not taken measures for a long time, serious consequences have been observed at the initial stages of the pandemic.