In recent weeks, the stock prices of Russian oil and gas companies demonstrate a positive dynamics, which is generally associated with optimism against the background of continuing pumping by the money of leading economies with central banks, restoring the global economy and achieving multi-month price maxima for oil and gas. Since the beginning of the current year, Brent oil quotes added 40 percent in ruble terms, and the spot prices for gas on the TTF exchange rose 2.5 times. This is reported by the investment strategist of the company “Arikaptal” Sergei Sverov in “Vedomosti”.
Analyst reminds that Rosneft shares on July 7, 2021 reached a historical maximum of 581.8 rubles for valuable paper. The record for LUKOIL shares was recorded on July 1 at the level of 6996.5 rubles, and on Novatek’s securities – August 17 at the level of 1804 rubles. According to the shares of “Surgutneftegaz”, “Tatneft” and Gazprom Oil, peak values were observed in January 2020.
At the same time, despite the increased attention to the shares of Gazprom on the background of record gas prices and strong results for the first half of 2021, the quotations of the gas monopoly shares are still far from maximum values. At a record level – about 367 rubles – they traded in May 2008. Thus, at the moment the price of Gazprom shares is still about 15 percent below the historical maximum. The depositary receipts of the company traded about 73 percent below the peak value of 31 US dollar, which was also recorded in May 2008.
Shares of most Russian oil and gas companies as the world’s reduction in hydrocarbons and improving financial indicators exceeded the peak values of 2008 over the next few years. At the moment, the price of shares of oil and gas companies with the exception of Surgutneftegaz is at times exceeding the maximum levels that were recorded in 2008. The decrease was recorded only at Gazprom.
Significant discrepancy in stock prices regarding maximum historical values may be a reflection of the efficiency of the operating and financial activity of a company presented on the stock exchange, Sergey Svervov notes. The fact that Rosneft shares, LUKOIL and NOVATEK are traded close to maximum historical values, can talk about high assessment of the prospects for these companies. Finding Gazprom at the bottom of the list on the dynamics of stock prices since 2008 reflects the insecurity of the market in the company’s prospects. Free cash flow “Gazprom” could be significantly higher if there were not a lot of bloated investment program. In the effectiveness of the capital investment program, Gazprom doubts many market participants. In addition, the current high level of gas prices in Europe seems like an unstable and gas costs may well drop as follows.