Simulation of researchers from the World Bank shows that due to the coronavirus caused by the coronavirus of the economic crisis in countries with low and medium income per capita, babies died by 267 thousand more than expected. Scientists submitted their findings in the BMJ Open magazine.
For the first year of the Coronavirus Pandemic, world GDP decreased almost five percent. In poor countries, economic shock leads to an increase in mortality among vulnerable groups of people, such as old men and children. The authors of the study decided to assess the influence of the expected fall of GDP on the mortality rate of children under the age of year in countries with low and middle-income per capita income. Data on GDP per capita Scientists combined with data on fertility in these countries from 1985 to 2018 received by the United States Agency for International Development. In addition, the IMF forecasts for economic growth for 2019 and 2020 were taken into account.
Calculations of economists show that mortality among babies in low- and middle-income countries increased in 2020 by an average of almost 6.8 percent – died by 267.2 thousand more than expected. Moreover, the greatest excessive mortality was observed in South Asia (about 113 thousand babies). A third of excessive mortality fell on India, where he could die up to hundreds of thousands of babies. In Africa, 82239 babies should have die – for comparison, similar estimates for the financial crisis of 2008-2009 are about 50 thousand deaths.